Scoring interval forecasts: Equal-tailed, shortest, and modal interval

Combining Interval Forecasts

In combining forecasts, a simple average of the forecasts performs well, often better than more sophisticated methods. In a prescriptive spirit, we consider some other parsimonious, easy-to-use heuristics for combining interval forecasts and compare their performance with the benchmark provided by the simple average, using real-life data sets consisting of forecasts made by professionals in the...

Finite equal-interval measurement structures

Lower Bounds for Shortest Path Interval Routing

Interval Routing was introduced to reduce the size of the routing tables: a router nds the direction to forward a message by determining the interval that contains the destination address of the message, each interval being associated to one particular direction. In this paper, we give lower bounds for the minimum number of intervals per edge needed to achieve shortest path routings for the cla...

Interval order representation via shortest paths

Our goal in this paper is to illustrate how the representation theorems for finite interval orders and semiorders can be seen as special instances of existence results for potentials in digraphs. This viewpoint yields short proofs of the representation theorems and provides a framework for certain types of additional constraints on the intervals. We also use it to obtain a minimax theorem for t...

Interval coded scoring systems for survival analysis

Abstract. Black-box mathematical models are powerful tools in classification and regression problems. Thanks to the use of (unknown) transformations of the inputs, the outcome can be estimated, improving performance in comparison to standard statistical models. A disadvantage of these complex models however, is their lack of interpretability. This work illustrates how advanced methods can be ma...